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Aftershock probability model for Australia

Created 17/10/2025

Updated 17/10/2025

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After a main shock, the magnitude and timing of smaller aftershocks follow characteristic distributions known as Gutenberg-Richter and Omori laws, respectively. Based on these empirical laws, Reasenberg and Jones (1989) proposed a model to estimate the probability of earthquakes during an aftershock sequence as a function of time and magnitude. In this study, the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones aftershock magnitude-time distribution are derived using the Australian instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2010). Two sets of model parameters are determined: sequence-specific parameters determined for well recorded aftershock sequences and generic parameters determined for a stack of events with magnitudes larger than or equal to 5. Both sets are found to be comparable to similar studies in other regions of the world. The spatial variation of model parameters is also studied and it is found that aftershock sequences in Southeastern Australia are less productive than sequences in Western Australia. Applicability of the derived generic parameters to forecast aftershock rates in Australia is verified using recent aftershock sequences that were not included in the earthquake catalogue such as the 2012 Gippsland earthquake.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Title Aftershock probability model for Australia
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4f390b6d-5d9c-4c31-b738-0ae557399c38
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 22/04/2018
Geospatial Coverage Australia
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "Aftershock probability model for Australia". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/aftershock-probability-model-for-australia