From Geoscience Australia
JSON format icon JSON RDF format icon RDF ISO19115-3 XML

Revisiting TC Vance – learning from the past to inform the future

Created 17/10/2025

Updated 17/10/2025

JSON format icon JSON RDF format icon RDF ISO19115-3 XML

In March 1999, TC Vance swept through Exmouth, with the eye wall of the cyclone passing directly over the township generating gusts to 267 km/h. Around 10% of residential houses showed structural failure, with some types of housing experiencing significantly greater damage. By revisiting the impacts of TC Vance, we hope to guide thinking of emergency managers and local government on planning for when another category 5 TC strikes Exmouth. Using the best track information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology, we simulate the wind field of TC Vance using Geoscience Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM), incorporating the local effects of topography, terrain and shielding afforded by neighbouring structures. This simulation is validated against observations of peak wind speed recorded at Learmonth Airport and other regional weather stations. The impacts of TC Vance are calculated for the present building stock in Exmouth, which has grown by nearly a third since 1999. Modern residential buildings perform very well, in line with the performance levels established by the wind loading standards for the region. Some groups of older buildings – specifically the U.S. Navy block houses that survived TC Vance unscathed – also perform very well. The analysis shows the town of Exmouth would still suffer substantial impacts, with around 700 buildings likely to suffer moderate to complete damage. This translates to around 1400 people, with at least half of those requiring temporary accommodation in the days and weeks immediately after the cyclone. These types of analysis help to reduce uncertainty and enhances decision-making for emergency services, enabling a more proportional response for rescue, damage assessments and initial recovery at the State, regional and local levels. From a strategic perspective it can also be used to identify and verify current and future capability needs for agencies involved in managing the cyclone hazard. Presented at the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Meeting and the International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography (AMOS-ICTMO 2019) Conference

Files and APIs

Tags

Additional Info

Field Value
Title Revisiting TC Vance – learning from the past to inform the future
Language English
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/en/dataset/4487c2e9-6407-4c09-89b1-5d07c18ad838
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 04/05/2018
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
{
  "coordinates": [
    [
      [
        112.0924,
        -24.6038
      ],
      [
        116.8232,
        -24.6038
      ],
      [
        116.8232,
        -20.7451
      ],
      [
        112.0924,
        -20.7451
      ],
      [
        112.0924,
        -24.6038
      ]
    ]
  ],
  "type": "Polygon"
}
Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "Revisiting TC Vance – learning from the past to inform the future". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/revisiting-tc-vance-learning-from-the-past-to-inform-the-future