Australian grains: outlook for 2016-17 and industry productivity

Overview

This publication summarises the forecasts presented in the December 2016 editions of ABARES Australian crop report and Agricultural commodities as well as material from an ABARES report on productivity in the Australian grains industry released in October 2016.

This publication was commissioned by the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC).

Key Issues

World indicator prices of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to fall in 2016-17 as a result of expected plentiful supplies globally. In contrast, world oilseeds indicator prices are forecast to rise because of a fall in supplies in the early part of 2016-17.

Favourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions during spring boosted the production potential of crops, which were generally in very good condition at the end of winter. Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 32 per cent in 2016-17 to a record 52.4 million tonnes.

Total area planted to summer crops is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2016-17 to around 1.4 million hectares. Producers are expected to increase planted area in response to favourable levels of soil moisture early in the planting window and plentiful supplies of irrigation water. Total summer crop production is forecast to rise by 21 per cent in 2016-17 to around 4.6 million tonnes.

The cropping industry recorded the second highest total factor productivity growth--at 1.8 per cent--of all broadacre industries between 2000-01 and 2013-14. Key drivers of cropping industry productivity growth include larger machinery and cropping equipment, new plant varieties, better water management and a better understanding of harvesting and planting strategies.