Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2016

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent to around $58.4 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 3.8 per cent increase to $56.5 billion in 2015-16. If realised, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 13 per cent higher than the five-year average of $51.8 billion between 2011-12 and 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at $29.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent to $29.2 billion in 2016-17. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross values of horticulture, cotton and oilseed production offsetting forecast decreases in the gross values of wheat and barley production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to fall slightly to $44 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.3 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.5 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to fall in 2016-17 are beef and veal (-12 per cent), dairy products (-1 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (-4 per cent), chickpeas (-32 per cent) and mutton (-17 per cent). Export earnings for wheat are expected to remain largely unchanged. • The forecast decreases in 2016-17 are expected to be partly offset by forecast rises in export earnings for wool (6 per cent), sugar (21 per cent), wine (1 per cent), cotton (40 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and canola (43 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia averaged 2.9 per cent in 2015-16 and is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU sugar industry
• The EU sugar market is highly regulated, with domestic price support, export subsidies and import restrictions. This stocktake of EU domestic and trade policies that support the EU sugar market will inform government and industry in the lead up to the commencement of Australia-EU FTA negotiations. • Australia's access to the EU sugar market is constrained by a country-specific tariff rate quota. Any improved access through either lower tariffs or increased quota would improve Australia's competitiveness in that market.

The EU almond industry
• The European Union is the world's largest consumer and importer of almonds and has been a growing export market for Australian almonds since 2005-06. • However, significant benefits from an Australian-EU FTA are unlikely for Australian almonds because import tariffs are already low and equal to those faced by the United States, the main supplier to this market.

Investment in Australian farms
• Investment in Australian farms is substantial, with net additions of non-land capital items on broadacre and dairy farms currently worth around $2 billion a year. • Farm operators and their spouses provide most of the capital used to fund the ownership and operation of Australian farms; corporate investors account for less than one-fifth of total capital. The strength of the family farm business structure suggests that corporate investors are unlikely to significantly displace family farmers in the near future.