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Using scenario simulation to inform disaster preparedness: scenario development and impact analysis

Created 16/10/2025

Updated 16/10/2025

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The Severe Wind Hazard Assessment project aims to provide DFES with intelligence on the scale of impacts that could arise from major tropical cyclone events in communities along the northwest and western coast of WA. We simulated category 3 and 5 scenarios in the northwest, and category 1 and 3 scenarios down the west coast. Simulations included translating the local-scale wind fields into the level of damage to residential housing, through the application of vulnerability models applied to residential buildings which had been categorised on the basis of attributes such as construction era, roof type, wall type and location. Some scenarios produce impacts that are comparable to past events (e.g. the category 5 scenario for Exmouth is similar to TC Vance). Other scenarios are catastrophic, such as the category 3 scenario for Geraldton, where nearly all residential buildings in the city are extensively or completely damaged. The different outcomes for communities arises because of the different profiles of residential buildings in each community. Geraldton lies outside the cyclonic regions defined in AS/NZS 1170.2, so houses are not explicitly designed cope with to the extreme winds that can arise in TCs, hence major impacts were found there in our analysis. DFES used these scenarios to guide planning and preparations for events, such as TC Veronica in March 2019, guiding decisions on preparations and recovery options, which are explored in a companion paper. Abstract presented at the 2020 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 2020 National Conference (http://amos-2020.w.amos.currinda.com/)

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Field Value
Title Using scenario simulation to inform disaster preparedness: scenario development and impact analysis
Language eng
Licence Not Specified
Landing Page https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d7138382-5c4d-4144-993a-55b5069cd3ef
Contact Point
Geoscience Australia Data
clientservices@ga.gov.au
Reference Period 08/04/2019
Geospatial Coverage
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors
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Data Portal Geoscience Australia

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on Geoscience Australia "Using scenario simulation to inform disaster preparedness: scenario development and impact analysis". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/csw/dataset/using-scenario-simulation-to-inform-disaster-preparedness-scenario-development-and-impact-analy