Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2017

Overview
The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in March 2017.

The report provides updated commodity forecasts, an article on China's grain policies and boxes on seasonal conditions in Australia and chilled beef exports to China.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts

• The gross value of farm production is expected to decrease slightly in 2017-18, reflecting an expected return to average seasonal conditions following record production in 2016-17. • The value of farm exports is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2017-18.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the estimated average of US75 cents in 2016-17.

Articles and boxes on agricultural issues
China's grain policies
• Recent changes to China's price support policies signal a move towards a less regulated grain marketing system. China now recognises a role for imports to ensure a secure food supply and actively engages in world markets for grains. These changes have the potential to influence global markets given the size of China's agricultural sector. • The article examines China's domestic grains support policies and border measures. Minimum purchase prices and a grain reserve system for rice and wheat remain key policy instruments. A non-commodity-specific support policy is also being implemented.

Seasonal conditions in Australia
• A timely autumn break in south-eastern Australia has improved soil moisture and provided a good start to the winter cropping season. • Pasture growth and pasture biomass is close to average for this time of year across most of Australia. • Drier and warmer-than-average conditions are more likely for much of southern Australia during the 2017 winter, but this is unlikely to adversely affect crop and pasture growth in the short-term due to adequate soil moisture.

Chilled beef exports to China heat up
• Australian exports of chilled beef to China are becoming increasingly important as Australian frozen beef exports face strong competition from low-cost South American producers. • Australia and China recently signed the Joint Statement on Enhancing Inspection and Quarantine Cooperation between Australia and the People's Republic of China. This will facilitate an increase in the number of eligible establishments permitted to export chilled and frozen red meat to China, pending the outcome of an audit.