1b218b57-e087-4514-9bce-38e7fe65d5b3 urn:uuid English UTF-8 nonGeographicDataset nonGeographicDataset 2018-06-19T23:43:32 creation ISO 19115 2016 Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volume: Method and assumptions 1b218b57-e087-4514-9bce-38e7fe65d5b3 Overview As part of a three year (2015-16 to 2017-18) joint project between Forest and Wood Products Australia (FWPA) and ABARES, ABARES developed quarterly sales volume forecasts for selected wood products from the FWPA Softwood Data series. This technical report documents the methods and assumption underlying ABARES forecasts. Key Issues • The FWPA Softwood Data Series (FWPA 2016) was established in 2002 by Australia's major softwood sawmilling companies and provides monthly sales volumes for 44 detailed product categories. ABARES was tasked to estimate quarterly forecasts for four specific wood products; untreated structural pine less than 120mm, untreated structural pine greater than 120mm, termite treated structural pine and landscape wood products. These forecasts will be made available for members of the FWPA data dashboard. • The econometric models estimated in the report are not based on formal structural economic models of the relevant wood product markets. Instead, they are simple, statistically robust, predictive models that are based on historical relationships and patterns observed over the sample period. • In interpreting or using ABARES forecasts it should be noted, that the FWPA Softwood Data series do not include all producers in the industry and the number of participating producers is changing over time. As such, the series are not representative of national production or sales and the effects of new entrants in the data series has the potential to affect the validity of the estimated models. The models estimated in this study, and approaches used to generate forecasts, will be periodically reviewed by ABARES in order to improve the accuracy of forecasts over time. Australia 151.122622 151.122622 -25.371968 -25.371968 AGRICULTURE FORESTS FORESTS production FORESTS statistics Farming forecasts forestry quarterly sales volumes wood productions Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volume: Method and assumptions documentDigital KeyDocument 1012 Whittle, L 2016, Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volumes: Method and assumptions, ABARES report to client prepared for Forest and Wood Products Australia, Canberra, August. CC BY 3.0. ISSN 189-3128 ISBN 978-1-74323-301-6 The authors gratefully acknowledge comments provided by Dr Rabiul Beg of James Cook University and Dr Jammie Penm of ABARES, and assistance provided by Jim Houghton of Forest and Wood Products Australia. PDF Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volume: Method and assumptions documentDigital KeyDocument 153 Whittle, L 2016, Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volumes: Method and assumptions, ABARES report to client prepared for Forest and Wood Products Australia, Canberra, August. CC BY 3.0. ISBN 978-1-74323-301-6 The authors gratefully acknowledge comments provided by Dr Rabiul Beg of James Cook University and Dr Jammie Penm of ABARES, and assistance provided by Jim Houghton of Forest and Wood Products Australia. word Authoritative descriptive metadata for: Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volume: Method and assumptions documentDigital Metadata in ISO 19139 format XML